{"id":16200,"date":"2024-08-06T04:06:05","date_gmt":"2024-08-06T04:06:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/?p=16200"},"modified":"2024-08-06T04:06:05","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T04:06:05","slug":"historian-who-predicted-almost-every-election-since-1984-reveals-who-is-likely-to-win-in-trump-harris-matchup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/06\/historian-who-predicted-almost-every-election-since-1984-reveals-who-is-likely-to-win-in-trump-harris-matchup\/","title":{"rendered":"Historian who predicted almost every election since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in Trump-Harris matchup"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Potential Harris VP pick triggers far left: ‘Ridiculous’ <\/a><\/h4>\n

Journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon on anti-Israel activists urging Kamala Harris not to pick Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro to be her running mate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The “Keys to the White House” are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race<\/a> is yet to be made.<\/p>\n

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Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election \u2013 and in most cases, it proves to be right.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point. Then, if one party’s candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.<\/p>\n

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At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic “key” for President Biden’s<\/a> incumbency \u2013 but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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PIERS MORGAN SAYS KAMALA HARRIS WILL MAKE HISTORY IF ELECTED AS \u2018LITERALLY\u2019 THE MOST FAR-LEFT SENATOR<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

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\"Donald<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div>\n
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Former President Trump arrives at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024.<\/span> (Mike Segar\/Reuters)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The “keys” are as follows:\u00a0
\u2013 party mandate
\u2013 contest
\u2013 incumbency
\u2013 third party
\u2013 short-term economy
\u2013 long-term economy
\u2013 policy change,\u00a0
\u2013 social unrest
\u2013 scandal
\u2013 foreign\/military failure
\u2013 foreign\/military success
\u2013 incumbent charisma
\u2013 challenger charisma<\/p>\n

Democrats, with Harris being the likely nominee, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman’s prediction. These include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.<\/p>\n

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HARRIS VS. TRUMP: 100 DAYS FROM ELECTION, IT’S A DRAMATICALLY ALTERED PRESIDENTIAL RACE<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority<\/a> in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.<\/p>\n

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at her presidential campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, on July 22, 2024.<\/span> (Erin Schaff\/Reuters)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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There are still four more keys that have yet to be handed out.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman says is notable given Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s place in the race.<\/p>\n

Keys are also still in the air for having “no social unrest,” as well as “foreign military failure” and “foreign military success.”<\/p>\n

If Democrats lose three more keys, then they would be the projected “losers,” according to the election prognosticator’s formula.<\/p>\n

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History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his \"Thirteen Keys to the White House\" at American University in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2008.<\/source><\/source><\/source><\/source><\/picture><\/div>\n
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History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2008.<\/span> (Nicholas Kamm\/Getty Images)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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A final prediction has not yet been made for the 2024 race, but Lichtman told News Nation that he believes “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP<\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump<\/a> would win in 2016, and Biden in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction for this cycle after Democrats choose their nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.<\/p>\n

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Aubrie Spady is a Writer for Fox News Digital.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

close Video Potential Harris VP pick triggers far left: ‘Ridiculous’ Journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon on anti-Israel activists urging Kamala Harris not to pick Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro to be her running mate. The “Keys to the White House” are currently favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Trump, but a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16200"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16454,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16200\/revisions\/16454"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16201"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cissar.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}